85th Academy Award Predictions

The full list of nominees for the 85th Academy Awards can be found here. Below are my hesitant predictions for twenty one of the categories. As you will see, I am sure of about half a dozen of these.

The 85th Academy Awards are held on February 25 (Australian time).  

Best Picture

Prediction: Argo

Could Win: Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Here’s how I’d rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning:

Argo

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Zero Dark Thirty

Amour

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Following the nominations Argo fell from equal favouritism with Lincoln to be beneath Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi and even Amour, but in the ensuing weeks – with wins at the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA and BAFTA – it has returned to heavy favouritism. But will this translate into a win, despite the fact that Affleck didn’t receive a nomination? It is looking very likely. Looking through each of Argo’s other nominations, I’m not sure it is going to win any of them. It ‘could’ take out Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing (well, it’s got this one) and Adapted Screenplay, and if it did I can see justification in the Best Picture win. I can also see Lincoln (Adapted, Supporting Actor, Actor and Director), Silver Linings Playbook (Adapted, Supporting Actor, Actress and Director), Life of Pi (Visual Effects, Cinematography, Score and Director) and Zero Dark Thirty (Editing, Original and Actress) making claims for Best Picture. I’m pretty sure Argo will take it out – I have come to learn how this race works – and though I now favour others, that’s fine with me.

Best Director

Prediction: Ang Lee

Could Win: Steven Spielberg, David O. Russell, Michael Haneke

Should Win: Russell

The fact that Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck (the Golden Globe, DGA and BAFTA winner) weren’t nominated changed this category significantly. It is a near-impossible category to predict with any assurance because they have split most of the precursors. Spielberg was the favourite, but he has been beaten repeatedly by Affleck (most recently, he wasn’t even nominated by the BAFTA) and though Lincoln is significantly better than last year’s Best Pic nominee War Horse, it is Kushner and Day-Lewis that deserve accolades before Spielberg, in my opinion.

Lee, Russell and Haneke all have a strong chance (and I would select Russell from this group), but either Bigelow or Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) would have topped my ballot were they nominated. I feel like Lincoln is losing momentum. Spielberg has been repeatedly beaten by Bigelow and Affleck, so there is no evidence to suggest he is assured this award, though betting against him is risky. As much as I’d like to see Russell take this out, I think he has more of chance at picking up Adapted Screenplay for SLP. I am going with Lee, but with absolutely no assurance, considering he hasn’t won a single precursor either.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis

Could Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Bradley Cooper

Should Win: Phoenix

A strong field. Jackman is evidently the weakest performance (for mine), and while Day-Lewis is a lock to win this, both Pheonix and Cooper deliver the performances of their lives. In any other year they would have been viable choices for the award, and the only considered alternatives here. Even Denzel Washington, phenomenal in Flight,has topped the work he won the award for back in 2001.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Prediction: Emmanuelle Riva

Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain

Should Win: Riva

This is a really interesting category. Riva, Lawrence and Chastain all have a shot and deserve the award. The latter two perhaps have the upper hand with their Golden Globe wins, but Lawrence’s SAG win, plus the evident love for the film (it has more of a chance of sweeping and going all the way than the other two), most likely places her on top. I am convinced Riva’s devastating work in Amour will earn her plenty of votes and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her rewarded over her younger counterparts. She just won the BAFTA, which proves she is right in the race. With this nomination Lawrence becomes the youngest ever to be nominated twice, while this is Chastain’s second straight nomination (Supporting Actor for The Help last year). Riva in what many will deem a surprise.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert De Niro

Should Win: Waltz/Hoffman

Perhaps the strongest and most wide open category this year. Each of the nominees has won this award in the past. With the exception of perhaps Arkin (but as Argo is now the frontrunner he’s not without a chance) any of the nominees could win here. Jones (SAG) and Waltz (Globe, BAFTA) are the favourites, no doubt, but as Waltz’s role is hardly a supporting one that might hurt his chances. If Lincoln goes on to win quite a few awards, Jones could be recognised along the way. The same goes for De Niro, sure to win if Silver Linings takes home the big one. Hoffman is The Master’s best bet and his work ranks amongst the best in his career. There are no preferences here, but Waltz is absolutely incredible in Django Unchained. I’d find it hard to split he and Hoffman.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Anne Hathaway

Could Win: Sally Field

Should Win: Hathaway

Hathaway will win this. And I believe she should. The rest of the field is not good enough, though Adams and Hunt would be my strongest contenders. Sally Field has been the only other nominee to win some critics awards, but even she is a long shot next to Hathaway.

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Could Win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty/Michael Haneke, Amour

Should Win: Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

A really tough category to call. I don’t know who will win, but none of these nominees are going to take out Best Picture. Last week I was in Tarantino’s corner. This week in Boal’s. When Tarantino won the BAFTA (in addition to the Globe) he took the lead. Both ZD30 and Django Unchained have garnered controversy (especially the former) and that could result in this award going to Haneke. I expect this ceremony to share the love around. This is potentially the only award Zero Dark Thirty will win (though I do have it down for Best Sound Editing), and it would be a shame to see it finish with none, but I am predicting Tarantino.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Could Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln/Chris Terrio, Argo

Should Win: Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Will a nominee in this category go on to win Best Picture? It is looking very likely. The top four chances are competing here. Argo is the frontrunner right now, but what else is it going to win? I suspect Terrio might win here. But, Kushner has won a majority of the precursors, and Russell may have even emerged as the favourite after the BAFTA win. The Academy seems to love the film (and will be looking for an opportunity to award it). Like Original, no one is predicting this category with complete assurance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kushner take it out, but in somewhat risky move I am going with Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. I would be very excited if he were to win here.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Amour

Could Win: A Royal Affair, War Witch

Should Win: Amour

Amour has to win this doesn’t it? It is clearly the best received film, and it has been nominated in four other categories including Best Director and Best Film! Yet to see War Witch/Kon-Tiki.

Best Documentary

Prediction: Searching For Sugar Man

Could Win: How To Survive A Plague, The Invisible War

Should Win: ??

I have only seen Searching For Sugar Man from the nominees, so I cannot judge who deserves to win, but Sugar Man won the PGA, DGA and the BAFTA and this should translate into a popular win.

Best Animated Film

Prediction: Frankenweenie

Could Win: Wreck-It Ralph, Brave

Should Win: Frankenweenie/ParaNorman

Brave now appears to be the favourite, knocking off Wreck-It Ralph, and though it is far from Pixar’s best work, it is a commendable achievement. I still hold hope for Frankenweenie and ParaNorman, and I am going with Frankenweenie.

Best Cinematography

Prediction: Life of Pi

Could Win: Skyfall

Should Win: Life of Pi

Will Deakins win his first Oscar after eleven unsuccessful nominations? The BAFTA’s awarded him, but they also awarded Skyfall Best British Film, so the film was favoured across the board. I expect this award to go to the visually stunning Life of Pi. Some of the underwater photography is sublime, and Miranda takes advantage of some of the best use of 3D to date.

Best Film Editing

Prediction: Argo

Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Again, this award ‘could’ go to anyone. Well, except Lincoln I’d say. Silver Linings Playbook, initially a surprise nominee, could ride this win to take out Best Picture given the growing support behind the film. Unlikely, but the editing is very good. Tichenor and Goldernberg should take this for Zero Dark Thirty, the most successful of all the films in the precursors, but with Argo’s recent momentum (not to mention the fact it is fantastically edited) I expect Goldenberg to be on the podium alone.

And the rest:

Best Production Design

Prediction: Lincoln

Could Win: Anna Karenina, Life of Pi

Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Costume Design

Prediction: Anna Karenina

Could Win: Les Miserables, Lincoln

Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Original Score

Prediction: Life of Pi

Could Win: Argo, Skyfall

Should Win: Life of Pi

Best Original Song

Prediction: Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing

Prediction: Life of Pi

Best Sound Editing

Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Prediction: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects

Prediction: Life of Pi

What are your thoughts? Do you agree with my predictions, share love for those I hope to win, or wildly disagree? Leave a comment below. Lets discuss. 

Andrew Buckle - follow Andy on Twitter here: @buckle22